Clinton and Trump’s demographic tug of war
Choose a category and explore how groups’ support has shifted since June.
CLINTON LEAD
SPLIT
TRUMP LEAD
Lead by percentage points
The presidential contest is often compared to a horse race, with the candidates fighting to finish in first place on Election Day.
We offer a bit of a different metaphor here. The campaign is also a series of simultaneously fought tug-of-war matches for different demographic groups — based on gender, age, and race/ethnicity, among others.
Our Washington Post-ABC News polling provides a glimpse into which demographic groups Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are attracting and how that support has changed over time.
Certain groups have wavered in their support since we started polling between the candidates, but others have been more stable.
Clinton has a narrow lead among likely voters.
Clinton has a four-point edge over Trump among likely voters, a small shift from a two-point lead in September.
Most voters seem locked into their choices, insulating Trump from tremendous fallout after The Post obtained a video in which he bragged about kissing and groping women. In all, 64 percent of likely voters said the video made no difference in their vote.
Likely
Registered
voters
voters
+4
+4
0
+80
+80
Oct. 13
Sept. 22
Sept. 8
Aug. 4
July 14
June 23
Likely
Registered
voters
voters
+4
+4
+80
+60
+40
+20
0
+20
+40
+60
+80
Oct. 13
Sept. 22
Trump gains
in September
Sept. 8
Aug. 4
Clinton’s
post-convention
bump
July 14
June 23
How the candidates’ support has changed since June
Clinton received a larger post-convention bump than Trump, but that’s eroded a bit since then. In July, she had a six-point edge over Trump among likely voters, and in August, after the convention, she had an eight-point lead. That’s now at four points.
While many groups remained safely in either Clinton’s or Trump’s voting blocs, some groups are torn. That includes independent registered voters, who leaned toward Trump in July and August then toward Clinton in early September, and today Clinton leads by seven points with the group. Independents backed Trump in late September and now Clinton again leads the group by seven points.
The biggest changes since June among registered voters were all in Trump’s favor. White women without college degrees, suburban voters, conservatives, and white Catholics are among the groups that have moved toward Trump by at least 15 points since June.
BIGGEST SHIFTS TOWARD TRUMP
+50
0
+50
Oct. 13
24
White women without
college degrees
June
19
Suburban
17
Conservatives
16
White Catholics
15
40-64 year olds
15
Some college
15
White non-evangelical
Protestants
+50
0
+50
+75
+50
+25
0
+25
+50
+75
June
Oct. 13
24
+7
+31
White women without college degrees
BIGGEST GAINS
FOR TRUMP
19
+16
+3
Suburban
17
+31
+48
Conservatives
16
+0
+16
White Catholics
15
+10
+5
40-64 year olds
15
+0
+15
Attended some college
15
+2
+17
White non-evangelical Protestants
+75
+50
+25
0
+25
+50
+75
Some more takeaways:
Party support solidified
Democrats and Republicans have aligned behind their candidates. Democratic voters support Clinton by a 76-point margin; Democrats who are likely voters support her by an 81-point margin. Republican voters support Trump by a 74-point margin; likely Republican voters support Trump by 77 points. These numbers closely mirror the results from the late-September poll.
A consistently large gender gap
Clinton’s lead among female voters shrunk slightly to a nine-point lead, while men have fluctuated from a 42 percent tie between the candidates in June to a 16-point edge for Trump in late September and now virtually a tie again, 43 percent to 42 percent, with Trump by one point. Among likely voters, Clinton has an eight-point lead among women and is tied with Trump among likely voter men.
A sharp racial divide between Clinton and Trump
Clinton has a solid lead with black and Hispanic voters. She holds a 79-point lead among African American voters in combined September and October polls. That is similar to earlier polling, but smaller than Obama’s 86-point margin among this group in 2012. Clinton holds a 28-point lead among Hispanic voters in combined polls – a group Obama won by 44 points in 2012.
No Republican in the past nine presidential cycles has lost among whites with college degrees.
Romney won the group by 14 points in 2012. Trump, however, has never held a significant lead with this group and is down by a 12-point margin among white college-educated voters, according to the October Post-ABC poll (and a 13-point margin among likely voters). That’s bad news for Trump when viewed alongside his performance among minorities.
This page will update with the results of future Washington Post-ABC News polls.
September poll results
Among registered voters in a four-way vote choice
Clinton
Trump
Among all voters
Likely voters
47
43
Registered voters
44
40
By age group
18-39
31 percent of registered voters
50
26
40-64
46 percent of registered voters
41
46
65 or older
22 percent of registered voters
44
46
By party
Democrats
84
8
Republicans
9
83
Independents
41
34
By education level
High school graduates or less
34 percent of registered voters
46
40
Attended some college
31 percent of registered voters
34
49
College graduates
22 percent of registered voters
51
33
Post graduates
13 percent of registered voters
54
31
By ideology
Liberals
69
16
Moderates
50
30
Conservatives
21
69
By gender
Men
47 percent of registered voters
42
43
Women
53 percent of registered voters
47
38
By religion
No religion
59
20
White Catholics
34
50
White evangelical Protestants
19
73
White non-evangelical Protestants
37
54
By geographic area
Rural
27
55
Suburban
41
44
Urban
58
28
By education level, among whites
White men with college degrees
14 percent of registered voters
48
40
White men without college degrees
21 percent of registered voters
29
58
White women with college degrees
14 percent of registered voters
48
33
White women without college degrees
24 percent of registered voters
28
59
By race*
Whites
74 percent of registered voters
36
50
Blacks
82
3
Hispanics
52
24
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